嗯，我们这门，嗯，我们，这个，嗯，我这个，Not thirty, thirty to forty percent probably is hanging up there. Whatever you’re saying is just gonna be, you know, a much higher picture at this continuing for another six to eight weeks. But leaving that aside, yeah, I think there’s a little more headwind in the second half. I always felt like the forecast has not, has not reflected the fading of the U. S. Gold State. You would not get for that. You, you want to be very bullish on the second half of the year? For you, yes, yeah. You always said that you want to raise the U. S. Forecast, and yeah, I, I would say that before the energy price shock. I wasn’t even saying that last year. We, what I, what I was saying is I would not be lowering the forecast from what is one and two percent at this point. I feel pretty comfortable with the forecast, and I think there is perhaps a bias towards if we get through this and open the trade, but right now I’m not feeling like I want to change the forecast. That’s my, yeah, yeah, all what I’m making here is I don’t want to be talking about that. You know, revisions to the forecast, and if I’m what we are pretty cautious about the U. S. Second half of the year, and the global economy as well, we’ve got global growth pretty much trending at this point, going through the rest of this year. Yeah, so I’m just pivoting back to the inflation point. I am, and I think there’s some more leakage of, of everything we just said to inflation point. Because inflation is playing a somewhat asymmetric role here. I think on the one hand, you’ve got headline inflation soaring, getting all these readings of inflation running over six percent annualized globally, which is gonna be material headwind in the driver of growth. And at the same time, you’ve got this cyclical left that we’re seeing out of the the the war and through the just through the second half of this year, which is looking solid, and as what we’ve rolled out in the in the coming weeks, we’ve got the jobs market looking like it’s doing a better cap. Back to still quite strong, although very imbalanced between tech and tech, not really seeing a lot of that. From consumption, I think the U. S. Is looking better. The start of the year everything was looking better, getting a little more fragmented, but still I think the general labor market, global manufacturing looks like it’s picking up. Probably tracking a little better for half for half. The the PMI’s I think are tracking close to two point seven percent globally. All of that is saying that with the cyclical leftness, we tied the day one was three point six percent. I think that is driving this underlying core. Because on the one hand, you’ve got inflation, which is a a primary driver of headwind, but then I believe the service, the cyclical from the growth side, feeding back into your core inflation picture. Maybe we’re just seeing some things going on here. I mean, one thing is I do believe that the good pricing picture even outside of energy and energy starting to straighten back on delivery times and supply chains is going to be this as certain more inflationary. We came into this year thinking that the global backdrop was relatively out of new shoes, right? Where, but what was moving much into global good prices, but what was really driving things with deflation, with dollar decline, year-on-year, trend, U. S. Tariffs, yeah, yeah. So that that did have a global real impulse from good prices, and now we do in part of it’s what you’re describing, which is global tech is driving, is putting pressure if you look at the import prices of tech products, the U. S. In today’s report, it was 3.8. You have the, I think, lower base of good prices in the picture, not just coming from energy itself, and then you have the energy stuff feeding some of this into the not just energy prices, but other goods trying to be moved out of the world and putting costs going up. So there’s a impulse there, and I think that’s, I mean, you’ve got core goods inflation that could have gone from something that’s probably looking like, you know, less than one percent at the end of last year, with deflation being strong in the U. S. But softer elsewhere, just something where global good inflation could be running, you know, around two to three percent in the in the coming coming months here. Yeah, I think that’s I think that’s right. I think at the end of last year, you were probably getting a little better from the U. S. All stuff, which was was up, but I think that’s right. There’s a it was reasonably close to one percent at the end of last year, and it’s now looking like it could be as high as two and a half to three, which is a big, big move. And now all of that, I think that’s the point. Making some of this the cyclical left in tech industry driving, and some of this the energy stuff feeding through in different ways. But what I want to say is I think there’s also a message in the data sticking in, in, in certain pieces. You know, and that stickiness I think is not the same in all places. I think Europe is is not showing the same trend, although the numbers recently have been a bit firmer. But I think you’ve got the U. S. Core services, even though, um, still coming down the other parts of services, which have a lot of funky components to it, actually continuing to show firmness. I think is leaving you with the service price inflation more consistent with the and all of that. I mean, leaving aside this story, which we maybe spend more time on, I wanted to just say whether there’s a little bit downside risk in the second half. And the point is, if we get through the worst of this, which is that specter of things kind of slowly, slowly, we just so things really go kind of exponential. Um, sure of that, you’ve got this inflation pressure, and that just means, you know, central banks are gonna have to be a bit more hawkish here, and we know this. Um, and we put this in the day one to, uh, yeah, right. So we go, um, just remarkably how almost every central bank statement moved in hawkish direction. Um, and I know we had all that central banks were gonna be cautious here. I, I, I kind of had pushed that central banker, you know, gonna be more worried about the growth side of this, really, just that. Um, but leaving aside, I think um the the hawkish message coming from these guys is is pretty clear. Um, I still feel like in the majors, this is reflecting hawkish move. That frankly, we felt certainly I I felt that beginning year we were gonna start to see a little bit of a pivot in this, and you see it in stage across the across the Fed. It’s like every speeder and cluey speeders this week have really started to pound the table that inflation is is looking like a a problem here, and I think you would have gotten that this is not about the world. This is not about oil prices. This is about the strength you’re seeing the resilient economy, the strength you’re seeing in, um, you know, the reset of the service prices super four running four percent annualized. You know, all of this is pushing them. And I, I, I know like I was trying to say from the market saying like I think you’re gonna get this shift to talking about higher rates in the market. But now the market’s taking all of the the Fed cuts. I mean, I’ll say that just to be punchy, that I think, you know, that higher rates for the year are not too far from call. But I think we’re looking for late first quarter next year. That’s that’s right. Um, so um, so I think about three. I think we’re gonna get the Fed. I think we need to see the market continue on the path we expect, which is for job growth to get back up to the U. S. What we just what we expect, right? And and you’re the punchiest on the labor market, right? That’s why that’s why I always kind of feel like why why you see a little more hawkish. Yeah, that’s why you’re not hawkish. That means really what are you about the Fed? It’s like getting really twenty-six. So that really twenty-six. It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter, but I’m at this. It’s it’s it’s gonna get through. It’s gonna get a high twenty-six. Then it’s gonna get pricing to the market by the middle of this year. That’s just a couple months away. Yeah, but this point, even where we are with all of these moving parts, I’m not gonna sit here and pound the table. I think what’s more important is to say we think the next move is up, and the pressures gonna build here if we’re back for half. That’s right. And you if you wanna kind of, I mean, yeah。
🔊 源音频文件